Turning Point for Kiwi Property

Denese Konowe

Alright, welcome back to Kiwi Real Estate, Inside Out. I'm Denese Konowe, and as always, I'm joined by my partner in both life and podcasting, Dr Lee Konowe. Lee, you ready to dive into what’s been a pretty wild year for the property market?

Dr Lee Konowe

Absolutely, Denese. And, you know, I keep thinking, every time we say “wild year,” the next one just ups the ante. But this time, the numbers really do speak for themselves. National property sales up 8.9% in May compared to last year—that’s not just a blip, that’s a real shift.

Denese Konowe

It is, and what really caught my eye was Northland. Thirty-three point three percent increase in sales, year-on-year. That’s huge. I actually know of a buyer up there—let’s call her Sarah—who was trying to buy her first home. She’d been watching the market for months, and suddenly, properties were just flying off the shelf. She had to move fast, and what struck me was how much more competition there was, even in areas that used to be a bit sleepy.

Dr Lee Konowe

Yeah, and it’s not just Northland. Tasman, Marlborough, they all saw double-digit jumps in sales. But, you know, it’s not all sunshine. Only six out of sixteen regions actually saw median price increases. The West Coast led the pack with an 11.5% rise, but Manawatu-Whanganui actually dropped by over 5%. So, it’s a mixed bag, right?

Denese Konowe

Exactly. And that’s what I told Sarah—just because sales are up doesn’t mean prices are skyrocketing everywhere. In some places, like the West Coast, you’re seeing real upward pressure, but in others, like Manawatu-Whanganui, prices are actually softening. It’s a reminder that New Zealand isn’t one market; it’s a patchwork of micro-markets, each with its own story.

Dr Lee Konowe

And, you know, Denese, that patchwork is something we’ve talked about before—remember our episode on how AI tools are helping agents spot these regional trends? It’s more important than ever to really dig into the local data, not just the national headlines.

Denese Konowe

Absolutely. And for agents listening, this is where your local knowledge and relationships really pay off. You can’t just rely on the national averages. You’ve got to know what’s happening in your own backyard, because that’s what your clients are feeling on the ground.

Dr Lee Konowe

So, let’s talk about what’s driving all this activity. The Reserve Bank’s been on a bit of a mission, right? Since August last year, they’ve cut the Official Cash Rate by 225 basis points. That’s brought floating mortgage rates down to 6.79%, and the one-year fixed rate is now at 5.56%. I mean, that’s a big drop from where we were just a year ago.

Denese Konowe

It really is. And you can feel it in the market. More buyers are coming out of the woodwork, and sellers are getting a bit more confident. But what’s interesting is the inventory—listings are up 25% above the five-year average. That’s a lot of choice for buyers, and it’s keeping prices from running away.

Dr Lee Konowe

Yeah, and I had this conversation just last week with a first-time buyer—let’s call him Tom. He was honestly overwhelmed by how many properties were available. He said, “Lee, I thought I’d have to fight tooth and nail for a place, but now I’m actually having trouble choosing.” And with those lower fixed rates, he could afford a bit more than he expected. But, you know, he was also a bit cautious—he didn’t want to overextend himself, especially with all the talk about where rates might go next.

Denese Konowe

That’s such a good point. Buyers have more power right now, but they’re also more cautious. And for agents, it means you’ve got to be ready to answer a lot of questions about rates, about inventory, and about what’s happening next. It’s not just about showing homes—it’s about being a guide through a market that’s changing fast.

Dr Lee Konowe

And, you know, Denese, this reminds me of what we talked about in our episode on complaint management. When the market’s moving this quickly, clients are anxious, and they need reassurance. It’s about listening, being responsive, and helping them make sense of all the noise.

Denese Konowe

Exactly. And with the median days to sell now at 41, buyers have a bit more breathing room, but sellers need to be realistic. It’s a balancing act, and the best agents are the ones who can help both sides find that middle ground.

Denese Konowe

Now, let’s zoom out a bit and talk about the bigger forces shaping the market—demographics. The Reserve Bank’s been pretty clear: our ageing population is going to have a big impact on savings, interest rates, and asset values. We’re already seeing older Kiwis saving more in the short term, but as they move into retirement, they’ll start drawing down those assets. That’s going to change the market in ways we’re only starting to understand.

Dr Lee Konowe

Yeah, and the projections are interesting. Some analysts are saying we could see house prices rise by 6% next year, partly because of these demographic shifts and the lower interest rates. But it’s not just about price—it’s about how people use their assets. I mean, we’re talking about a generation that’s going to be selling, downsizing, or even helping their kids get on the ladder.

Denese Konowe

That’s right. I know a retired couple in Wellington recently—let’s call them the Browns. They’d been in their family home for decades, but with the kids gone and retirement on the horizon, they wanted to rethink their strategy. We talked about whether to sell, downsize, or maybe even invest in something that would give them more flexibility. What struck me was how much their decisions were shaped by these bigger trends—interest rates, savings, even what their friends were doing.

Dr Lee Konowe

And it’s not just the Browns. This is going to be a story for a lot of Kiwis over the next decade. As more people retire, we’ll see shifts in demand, in the types of properties people want, and in how wealth moves through families. It’s a long game, and agents who understand these trends will be in a much better position to help their clients plan ahead.

Denese Konowe

Absolutely. And for everyone listening—whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching the market—these demographic changes are going to shape the future of property in New Zealand. It’s not just about what’s happening this month or this year, but about where we’re all headed together.

Dr Lee Konowe

Well said, Denese. And, as always, we’ll be here to help make sense of it all as things keep evolving. That’s it for today’s episode of Kiwi Real Estate, Inside Out. Denese, always a pleasure.

Denese Konowe

Thanks, Lee. And thanks to everyone for tuning in. We’ll be back soon with more insights and stories from the front lines of New Zealand real estate. Take care, everyone!

Dr Lee Konowe

See you next time, folks. Bye for now.